That leaves us with five states and one congressional district worth a total of 85 electoral votes that are the current toss-ups on the map: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina and Ohio. Of course, the one move doesn’t change a lot in the overall outlook heading into Election Day. As always, we base this outlook on public and private polling, the strategic bets the campaigns are making with tens of millions of advertising dollars, where Trump and Biden and their top-level surrogates are spending the bulk of their virtual and in-person time, and on conversations with state-based and national political operatives, elected officials and advisers to both campaigns. When outside groups are factored in, Pennsylvania has seen $135 million in TV ad spending — the second-highest total for any state, behind Florida. The pair was also seen by a swimming pool as the cookbook author wore a bikini an a coverup by Koi Sydney. When Bobby Moore lifted the Jules Rimet trophy for England in 1966, he wore a red Umbro shirt, and when Celtic and Manchester United pioneered European club success for Britain in the sixties, they were head to toe in Umbro.
In the fateful quarter-final with Argentina, memorable for Owen’s wonder goal and Beckham’s dismissal, England wore all white. An appearance in the White House East Room in the early hours, in which he falsely claimed victory, represented his most brazen threat yet against the democratic principles that underpin the US political system. It is far past time for Washington to remove its slogan from outside the White House. And despite aiming to expand their House majority, Democrats lost several seats and some threatened Republicans clung onto theirs. Both Republicans and Democrats point to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District as the more truly competitive of those two battles for single electoral vote districts. A blue wave many Democrats were looking for to end Mitch McConnell’s GOP Senate majority has so far not been realized, though some key races still undecided. His wrecking ball presidency that Democrats had hoped for. If you then add in the seven states and that one congressional district in Nebraska currently leaning in his direction, Biden gets a total of 279 electoral votes — enough to win the presidency. It means a state like Iowa, which Trump won by nearly 10 percentage points, is well within reach for Biden, so we have moved that one from Leans Republican to pure Battleground status.
Since our last Electoral College outlook, there have been no fewer than eight polls that meet CNN’s reporting standards out of Pennsylvania — a critical battleground state for either candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes. Build your own road to 270 electoral votes with CNN’s interactive map. CNN’s Jim Acosta and Kaitlan Collins reported Wednesday night that Republican officials have been alarmed by the dramatic tightening of the race in Georgia, a red state Trump easily won in 2016. But Black turnout for Biden in the state has exceeded expectations. We currently have six states and one congressional district in Maine as pure toss-up battlegrounds totaling 96 electoral votes. It is clear that Trump’s path to reelection is far narrower than Biden’s, but it remains a viable one. If Trump is to have a successful reelection effort, it has to start with running the table with all of them and then still finding at least 22 electoral votes currently leaning toward Biden and bringing them back into his fold. When you combine that base of solid states with the additional 38 electoral votes from Texas that are currently leaning in his direction, it brings Trump’s total to 163 electoral votes — 107 away from reelection.
For his path to 270 electoral votes, Trump starts with a solid base of 125, from 20 states that are most likely to be uncontested. Biden starts his path toward 270 electoral votes with a solid base of 16 states plus the District of Columbia totaling 203 electoral votes. In this current outlook, we also have moved the single electoral vote that gets awarded to the winner of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District to leaning in Biden’s direction. Between now and Election Day, both campaigns have more than $2 million reserved in the state. Pennsylvania has been a prime target for both campaigns this cycle, with Biden spending $48 million in the Keystone State compared with $21 million for the Trump effort. While the Trump campaign is off the air in Iowa, the Biden campaign is spending $565,000 there this week. Federal agents have seized the supplies over the past week in New York. It’s the third consecutive week the President’s campaign will be without television ads in the Hawkeye State. Trump campaign officials said Wednesday afternoon that they believe the President can hold his lead in Pennsylvania, but they are also suing the commonwealth, claiming that Democratic election officials are “hiding the ballot counting and processing” from Republican poll observers.
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